early look at hollywood today

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will be putting together a decent-sized pick 6 play today, but here's some individual spot plays:

r1: silver diablo. this is actually a very tough $12.5k claimer, so i expect a decent price on this gelded son of holy bull, who has certainly not lived up to expectations in his brief career. the sarge dipped into the till to claim him and i think he'll rul well; unfortunately, there's 2 speed horses drawn outside of him, so we'll have to cross our fingers at the top of the lane.

r2: movoverredrover. drops from maiden specials into this claimer for cal breds and i think he'll show a ton more speed with the blinkers on for sandy shulman.
he's a juicy 10-1 on the m/l and i like his chances in here.

r6: cash in the bank. i hate juan leyva (look at the perfect winless record at the meet at hollywood), but this one will pop the gate like a rocket ship. i'd single him, but too many of these cardenas horses show speed and flop in the lane. so, i'll use cape kennedy and two more in here as insurance in the p-6.

r8: cree. yes, let's recap, mazel trick is advocating betting on felipe martinez, paul atkinson, juan leyva and now kerwin john. have i lost my mind?? perhaps, but the value here will be with this pupye trainee, who should be wingining from the outside. now, with that horrible post, pupye's bad stats, and the other speed, i obviously don't reccommend a single, but no matter, i'll play him a bit in the win pools.

good luck.
 

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from the you get what you pay for dept:

r1: silver diablo scratched
r2: 'redrover gets put in the shuffler at 10/1 approaching the far turn by atkinson and finishes third.

r6: cash in the bank -- don't know if he could have beaten the 6, but what a terrible ride by leyva-- he has the lead by a length and a half at the top of the lane-- open up, you idiot! these two year olds don't fight back, so you have to take advantage when you're in front. i promise you if patrick valenzuela was on that horse, he gets there first....or at least makes it a photo at the wire.

prima facie examples of why it's hard to bet these awful jockeys.
 

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